Astronomy: Another demotion to come (We're not unique)

The last post I did should have been a bit of perspective to our place in the universe (i.e. we are in no way centrally located).  This knowledge should be known by all humans on this planet after a series of great demotions as Carl Sagan called them.  However, I think it's valuable to remind everyone that we are far from unique in this universe.  The Kepler mission is out there looking for planets that could be a lot more like ours than any others we have found.  Now, the geometries involved here mean that very few (relatively speaking) are actually going to be detected.  Or as they say:

Geometric Probability

Transits can only be detected if the planetary orbit is near the line-of-sight (LOS) between the observer and the star. This requires that the planet's orbital pole be within an angle of d*/a (part 1 of the figure below) measured from the center of the star and perpendicular to the LOS, where d* is the stellar diameter (= 0.0093 AU for the Sun) and a is the planet's orbital radius.

This is possible for all 2pi angles about the LOS, i.e., for a total of 4pi d*/2a steradians of pole positions on the celestial sphere (part 2 of figure).

Thus the geometric probability for seeing a transit for any random planetary orbit is simply d*/2a (part 3 of figure) (Borucki and Summers, 1984, Koch and Borucki, 1996).

For the Earth and Venus this is 0.47% and 0.65% respectively (see above Table). Because grazing transits are not easily detected, those with a duration less than half of a central transit are ignored. Since a chord equal to half the diameter is at a distance of 0.866 of the radius from the center of a circle, the usable transits account for 86.6% of the total. If other planetary systems are similar to our solar system in that they also contain two Earth-size planets in inner orbits, and since the orbits are not co-planar to within 2d*/D, the probabilities can be added. Thus, approximately 0.011 x 0.866 = 1% of the solar-like stars with planets should show Earth-size transits.

Which is why the Kepler results really are in line with what we know of the universe. Kepler has been up there for a short while, and has a possible list of nearly 2000 planets just looking at about 150,000 stars for only a couple of years! So if only 1% statistically transit, that would mean that just randomly 1500 systems would have the correct orientation (given the results to date, that makes sense). And given that about 7500 stars were eliminated from consideration due to being variable of one sort or another... I think it would be pretty safe to say that pretty much every star out there has at least some sort of planetary body around it.

And what we know of evolution and life here on earth (particularly in regards to its resilience and ability to pop up just about anywhere), it's a safe bet that life out there will be relatively common.  Granted, we only have a smaple size of one at the moment.  However, should we find evidence on Mars or Europa for instance, that will really open the field up.  With the possibility of life being pretty common, that begs the question of intelligent life out there.  We (notionally) have a smaple size of one on this too.  Sadly, the factors involved in our ascent to (supposed) intelligence are unknown and very difficult to translate to any other of a myriad of possibilities.  But given the large numbers involved, I'm pretty sure they are out there.  I just highly doubt we'll ever get to talk to any of them.

And just to leave you with another preliminary paper about the probability of earthlike planets out there, Dr. Phil Plait covers this as well:

A paper has been accepted for publication in a science journal (PDF) where the author has analyzed data from NASA’s Kepler planet-finding observatory, trying to figure out how many Earth-sized planets there might be in the galaxy orbiting their stars in their habitable zones; that is, at the right distance so that the star warms the planet enough to have liquid water. In the paper, he estimates that on average 34% (+/-14%) of Sun-like stars have terrestrial planets in that Goldilocks zone.

34%!

I can explain how he got this number. But I can also explain why I think this needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Let me be clear: it’s possible he’s right, and I suspect he may very well be. His math looks good to me. But a couple of assumptions he had to make need to be pointed out, and I want that to be clear before the media start running around saying there are billions of Earths in the galaxy based on this.

Here’s the deal. Kepler is an orbiting observatory that’s staring at about 100,000 stars, looking for dips in their light when an orbiting planet passes in front of them from our perspective. The length of time the dip takes gives us the orbital period of the planet, and the size of the planet (if the star’s size is known, generally true) can be determined by how much light is blocked. I talk about how this works in a little more detail in an earlier post.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE REST OF THE POST.

A Tragic Loss (The death of my sister, and college funds for her kids)

I would love to believe that when I die I will live again, that some thinking, feeling, remembering part of me will continue. But much as I want to believe that, and despite the ancient and worldwide cultural traditions that assert an afterlife, I know of nothing to suggest that it is more than wishful thinking.

The world is so exquisite with so much love and moral depth, that there is no reason to deceive ourselves with pretty stories for which there's little good evidence. Far better it seems to me, in our vulnerability, is to look death in the eye and to be grateful every day for the brief but magnificent opportunity that life provides.

- Carl Sagan "In the Valley of the Shadow" PARADE magazine (10 March 1996)

Yesterday I found out that my sister took her own life. It was a very sad shock and a huge tragedy. Personally, as an atheist, all the evidence supports the position that once electro-chemical processes stop in the brain, that's it. That person is no more, and no one will ever be able to interact with them in any way ever again. It is the final equalizer for us all. For most, death comes naturally after a life of many decades. To some it is cut short through no specific plan of an individual through disease or accident. And sadly, some suffer from a misunderstood disease of mental illness, and they lose perspective and irrationally end it for themselves.

I am of course very sad about this news. My sister was a very intelligent, funny, strong-willed, determined, and vivacious young woman. All those attributes are generally not ones you would think of for someone who would take their own life, yet she did. I find that I harbour no anger or resentment towards her for this final act. She was indeed ill, and she didn't get the help she needed. Maybe her self reliance and determination prevented her from admitting to herself her illness and actually seeking the help she needed. She had been in an opportunity to be evaluated for mental health help, however, as a nurse (and a smart one at that), I am sure she was able to provide the doctors with the answers to their questions that would allow her to leave the psychiatric evaluation facility with minimal follow up.  If anything, I feel anger towards that institution more than anything else.

I am most concerned for her children though. Susan had a very tumultuous life, and her children were really the one stabilizing factor for her. They are wonderful kids, and this isn't the sort of thing that any child should have to deal with. In celebration of her life, I am setting up an educational fund for her kids. If you wish to donate, here are the details:

Send a check or money order to (these are 529 plans, so they may be tax deductible depending on your state):

USAA College Savings Plan

(Susan L. Carroll Memorial Fund)

P.O. Box 55354

Boston, MA.  02205-5354

1-800-531-8722 Extension 24992

If you have a U Promise account, you can link to these as well.  You will need to specify the accounts you want the funds to go into (or ask them to equally disburse the funds):
Cole:  505293251-01
Sommer:  505293251-02
Noelle:  505293251-03
Grace:  505293251-04

If you have questions or concerns, please call the phone number above, or you may contact me and I'll see what I can do to help.

P.S.  I have several blog entries already in the queue. I think I will let them auto-publish over the next few days. This is not out of insensitivity or anything. I just figure that since we only have this life, I should not go out of my way with grief, but instead draw on the support of friends and family, and manage to continue living my life as a testament to its value. I hope you can understand that.

The Known Universe by American Museum of Natural History

Watch this in full size! That is all I have to say about that.



This is home sweet home. The only one we have, and probably will ever know. We may learn about others out there, but they will only be dots in the sky that we learn about in books and through science. This one is the one we need to take care of, because fuck it all, we're really screwing this one up for ourselves.

I think over the next few days, I will post a few more things that really show how small and insignificant we really are.  The universe doesn't give a damn about us, nor does the galaxy, the solar system, or even the planet.  We are wholly responsible for our own fate, and we are being total fucktards about it as a species because the 0.1% that think they are in charge of everything haven't a fucking clue what they are doing.

Sign This Petition!

This petiton needs signatures!  It doesn't matter if you are atheist, or religious.  As an atheist (former) service-member ALL service members should be protected from overt discrimination or punishment under EEO policies that are established, but oft ignored.  If we can't get a commanding officer torespect the religious freedom of his subordinates, how can we trust him to stand up and fight for our country’s promised freedoms?  We can't!

SIGN THE PETITION!

Ed Brayton at Freethought Blogs has a post about how non-religious service members are treated on a regular basis, and it doesn't seem to be getting better.  Here is what he has to say, with a couple of examples:

Justin Griffith documents some of the treatment of non-believing soldiers who resist being forced into going to religious services by their superiors. A former Marine NCO writes to him about his experiences in boot camp when he requested permission not to attend church services on Sundays. As usually happens, he was forced to clean the barracks instead; he was also berated repeatedly by his drill instructors.

July, 7th 1998 I went to Marine Corps Basic Training in San Diego, CA. Shortly after being assigned to Platoon 1103 and meeting our Drill Instructors, the first Sunday of my enlistment rolled around. We sat in one of the theaters and listened to a Chaplain speak, telling us that they offered services for almost any form of religion and that after he was finished we were to get in line for our appropriate religion. He also said that there was a non-denominational group that would discuss our relationship with god. Lastly he said that we did not have to attend any church services if we did not want to.

I looked for the “not attending church” line, but could not find it. I was instead ordered to line up in the non-denominational line.

I sounded off, “Sir, This Recruit requests permission to not attend church services, Sir!”

Another platoon’s Drill Instructor interrogated and berated me for quite some time as I continued to respond with that phrase. Finally he gave in and took me back to the barracks where my Drill Instructor did the same. Eventually he too gave in and put me to work cleaning different areas of the barracks.

My Senior Drill Instructor (a church choir singer and devout christian) was then informed. He attempted the interrogation and berating, having the same effect. Later he had both a private and a public “Hats off” more polite conversation urging me to attend church services. Again I sounded off with the phrase that became my mantra. ”Sir, This Recruit requests permission to not attend church services, Sir!” He then seemed to want nothing to do with me since I wouldn’t “Do this for him.”

At least he stopped trying to force me to go.

As Justin notes, this is a story that you hear constantly from atheist soldiers. The experience seems to be so routine as to almost be a matter of official military policy. This particular soldier was even arrested for refusing to attend a religious service, though no charges were filed because the arrest was clearly illegal.

Here’s Justin’s own story:

There are two choices we can make when faced with this in boot camp.
1) Clean up and get yelled at every week – a punishment for not believing in god. 2) Go to a religious service and tune it out.

I tried both. I was not allowed to write letters, sleep, or even sit down. If for even one second I wasn’t actively cleaning, the Drill Sergeants would throw sand across the (freshly) waxed floor, or otherwise punish me. They get really creative. I was a special case because just before graduation, I was seriously injured. This extended my stay from the standard 9 weeks to a grueling 30-something weeks long.

This is why what Justin is doing in organizing Rock Beyond Belief and and in giving a voice to all atheist soldiers is so important. Atheist soldiers can no longer just sit back and take the abuse, they must speak up if they have any hope of ending it. By holding that event at Ft. Bragg, we are getting the attention of the Pentagon and letting them know that the rights of atheists are just as important as the rights of Christians — and that we’re going to be watching to make sure they get the point.

ORIGINAL POST HERE!

The Guardian: Rising atheism in America puts 'religious right on the defensive'

According to The Guardian, atheism (or more specifically secularism) is on the rise in the United States.  Particularly with younger folks.  I guess since all these younger folks aren't responsible for most of the politics or TV programming, I guess we still have to put up with the likes of Rick Parry and all the smarmy televangelists or hateful preachers, but there may be hope for the future.  They do point out the statistics that we are starting to hear more an more about.  It's funny that someone would discount 15-20% of the electorate like the nutbag theocrats are doing, but then just as well.  Although I really wish they wouldn't have success at the local level which seems to embolden them to think that the rest of the world is just like their little fantasy neighborhood they just crawled out of...

The US is increasingly portrayed as a hotbed of religious fervour. Yet in the homeland of ostentatiously religious politicians such as Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, agnostics and atheists are actually part of one of the fastest-growing demographics in the US: the godless. Far from being in thrall to its religious leaders, the US is in fact becoming a more secular country, some experts say. "It has never been better to be a free-thinker or an agnostic in America," says Annie Laurie Gaylor, co-president of the FFRF.

The exact number of faithless is unclear. One study by the Pew Research Centre puts them at about 12% of the population, but another by the Institute for the Study of Secularism in Society and Culture at Trinity College in Hartford puts that figure at around 20%.

I did get a particular kick out of one paragraph though (emphasis mine).

There are other indications, too. For a long time studies have shown that about 40% of US adults attend a church service weekly. However, other studies that actually counted those at church – rather than just asking people if they went – have shown the true number to be about half to two-thirds of that figure.

In other words; are the theitards lying for jebus again? If it wasn't so totally expected, and exactly the modus operandi they have been under for decades, I would be surprised (or maybe I wouldn't).

16 Things Atheists Need Christians to Know

I am filing this under humour only because it really is very much tongue in cheek (and besides, associating knowledge with a theists?  Who are we kidding?  They will continue to blindly parrot their assertions and stick to their silly preconceived notions of how the world works.)  Was that parenthetical too snarky?  Well, fuck them them if they have their feelings hurt...

I just happened to find this over at the I Am An Atheist website, and it was making the rounds on facebook and other places, so I wanted to add in my amusement at the whole thing.  Here it is:

Guest essay by Deborah Markus

Please stop hedging when you mention our lack of belief. Atheists are atheists. We're not "self-described," nor do we "claim" to be atheists. You don't want us to start saying things like, "This is my friend, Julie. She calls herself a Christian," do you? Then man up, brace yourself, and use the a-word all by itself. Practice in front of the mirror if you need to. You'll know you have the proper calm, factual tone when the glass doesn't shatter.
Please stop capitalizing the word "atheist." Unless it comes at the beginning of the sentence, you're just wasting ink. We know you're probably trying to be polite, but it doesn't work that way. There is no guy named Athe.
Some of you keep insisting that we're angry at your god. And then you laugh at us for being so silly – being angry at someone we don't even believe in. Well, you're right. That would be pretty darned silly. That's why we don't do it. Are you annoyed at Zeus? Do you have a grudge against the faerie folk? Of course not. It's the same for us – how could we feel anger or hatred toward a non-existent being? (Some of his followers cheese us off, but that's another story.)
Stop saying that deep down inside, we really do believe in your deity. Belief in the kind of guy who can create an entire universe with the force of a few well-turned phrases is not the sort of secret that fits neatly into a back pocket, as it were. If we thought this fellow was real, we'd be the first to know. And people don't tend to keep that particular nugget of information to themselves. Ever notice that?
Please understand that "You're such a nice person! I can't believe you're an atheist!" is not a compliment. More importantly, please understand that we understand that. Believe me, every single one of us has considered replying, "And you're so smart – I can't believe you're a Christian!" How about we all agree to not go there?
The only thing all occupants of foxholes have in common is access to weapons and a willingness to fight. It might be the better part of wisdom not to provoke them by insisting that you know more about their beliefs or lack thereof than they do.
How can our lives have any purpose without God? One word: chocolate.
It's sweet of you to worry about us, really it is. But it's not terribly helpful to tell us that we should go ahead and believe in your particular faith "just in case." Just in case what? In case a deity who can't distinguish heartfelt faith from apple-polishing affectation happens to be running the show?
Let's make a deal: we promise to stop asking that stupid question about whether God can make a rock so big he can't lift it. In exchange, please stop saying, "Well, God doesn't believe in atheists!" and then laughing like Shakespeare came back to life just long enough to write one last comedy.
Please quit asking us how or why we "turned our backs" on God. The whole point of being an atheist is that we don't see any reason to think we did any such thing.
Anyone who was born in an English-speaking country and is more than two minutes old has heard about God and Jesus. It's annoying when you assume that atheists just haven't heard enough about them, and that's why we're still atheists. Many of us have done extensive research on the subject of religion. Many of us credit our atheism to exactly that.
Please stop telling your atheist acquaintances that you'll miss us when you get to heaven. No, you won't. If you turn out to be right, you'll be in heaven – the place where, by definition, people don't feel sad. And if we're right – well, guess who won't be feeling much of anything?
If you've ever said, "You can't prove there isn't a God" – first of all, congratulations. You're officially four years old. Second, we never said we could. But until you can show some serious proof that there is one, we see no reason to believe. There's nothing wrong with taking a leap of faith, provided you acknowledge that's what you're doing. Atheists simply prefer other forms of exercise.
Stop asking us how we can be moral without God. It's simple. We're awake, and we're not idiots. That's all it takes to figure out that sharing the planet with so many other people is a lot more pleasant when we also share some basic ideas about acceptable behavior. I don't like being stabbed; therefore I support laws against stabbing and promise not to stab anyone myself, no matter how much I may feel like doing so. See how easy?
So far as being a Christian is concerned, you're either a member of a persecuted minority, or part of a solid majority. Figure out which one of those is the case, and then live with it. You don't get to switch back and forth depending on whether you think you can smother dissent better at any given moment by either whining that everybody's always being mean to you, or bellowing that this is your house and you make the rules.
Speaking of persecuted minorities: Christianity used to be one. Did you fight your way to freedom of faith just so you could treat nonbelievers the same way they used to treat you?

Can you guys think of any good clever things to add to this list?

Laws I would Enact...

First of all, I would never run for public office.  Mostly because I don't think I have the right temperament for it (bullshit and assholes piss me off, and that's all congress seems to be made of).  Also, as an atheist, I am pretty much totally unelectable...  I know, it's a sad truth that somehow I am in America's most hated group (even though having served, I am also in one of the more trusted/respected groups...).  Anyway, I do think that there are several laws that need to be passed (some of these are only half hearted jokes, but some of them I am serious about):

• Between the time the President's Budget is submitted, and Congress approves it, they shall not gather any pay, nor shall any pay be retroactively awarded.  This no-pay period cannot be bypassed through legislation to increase Congressional salaries.
• All discretionary or supplemental riders to the President's submitted budget plan must be budget neutral through either cutting of  another program or an appropriate tax increase.
• No Congressional salary increases shall take effect until after all legislators who voted on the bill have left office.
• The Debt Ceiling shall be eliminated.  Instead, prior to passing any federal budget, if expenditures are greater than income, a statement shall be read and acknowledged by all members stating that they are also approving the required debt ceiling to pass this budget (that this should even need to be a law is incredibly silly, but this past August showed that it is apparently required...).
• When Congress authorizes any deceleration of war, there will be an automatically enacted "War Tax" which will cover the expected expenses beyond the currently approved DoD budget.  Any military action taken by the President as Commander in Chief shall also enact a "War Tax" as to be budgetary neutral.
• Term Limits!
• Tort reform.
• Campaign finance reform.
  

Some sillier laws that I wish would be practical:

• Since a corporation is considered a person for purposes of campaign contributions, it shall be treated as a person for applicability to all other laws as well.  Much like you can't leave behind your hands or feet when you go somewhere, if any one individual of a corporation is subject to other laws, penalties, or restrictions, so shall ALL members of the corporation be equally subject to those laws.  (In other words, someone gets busted for a DUI or something, everyone in the corporation faces the penalties...  Hey, the corporation is a person, right?)
• If you wholly deny evolution, then you are only allowed access to medical technology as it existed prior to 1859.  If you are convinced that evolution is somehow guided by something supernatural, then you are allowed medical technology as it stood in 1953. 
• If you are a climate change denialist, you will be invited to move to Texas, Arizona, or Nevada and provided a free house sans air conditioning (okay this is the silliest one, but seriously how can one deny climate change in this day and age?  (See this comic for my take on it even if you are anti-reality, why you should support cleaning up our act.)
• If you feel that any laws that protect the air, our food, product safety, etc. are a bad idea, a new chain of stores will be opened where you can buy products that have never been inspected.

Anyway, if you can think of more, maybe we should copy/paste this list and send it to our currently bought (I mean elected) politicians?

Them thar chickens coming home to roost is a bitch, ain't it Parry?

I could joke about how there is some sort of causality to the problems Texas is having with wildfires, and their governor's bahviour.  However, I think instead, let's look at the sort of shit this idiot pulls, and then looks confused (a normal mental state for the man I think) as to why things are going poorly, even though at one time there were tools to help deal with this situation.  The American Independent has a few words to say about this.  I particularly noticed:

But while Perry complains about the feds’ response, he and Texas lawmakers have also been called to task for huge cuts to state firefighting resources passed earlier this year. The two-year budget that took effect last Thursday includes a 75 percent slash to volunteer fire departments — from $30 million to $7 million — and a one-third cut to the Texas Forest Service. State Sen. Kirk Watson (D-Austin) said this year’s fires near the capital city underscore the need to better fund the emergency-services districts stretched thin at the outskirts of Texas’ growing cities.

Texas’ 879 volunteer departments are the first line of defense against wildfires for much of the state. The forest service, with 230 firefighters and 15 trucks, provides statewide support. After that, help comes from the federal government and other states.

And in case all the denialists legislators want to pass the buck and attempt to not accept at least partial blame:

In fact, the Texas firefighting force that’s battling flames right now is a result of a beefed-up budget approved by legislators in 2009, after the forest service succeeded in convincing lawmakers it was a wise investment. In 2008, Texas was coming off another serious drought, and a wildfire season two years earlier that required huge federal assistance including $34 million in FEMA grants.

In a funding request for 2010-2011, Texas Forest Service directors made a strong case for a bigger up-front investment from the state. “National mobilization costs 3-4 times per unit (a firefighter, a dozer) as it does to have our own state resources,” directors wrote, and take longer to arrive. “It takes three to five days to mobilize out-of-state resources. Our urgent resource requests could be efficiently alleviated if we had adequate state resources to rapidly attack and keep wildfires from turning into large, complex, multiple-day events.”

“We have examples of communities being burned because the state did not have enough resources,” directors wrote. The legislature responded with a $15 million bump in forest service funding, as the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported in April.

This year, though, lawmakers rolled back the forest service budget, mostly by cutting its funding for grants that help volunteer fire departments buy new equipment.

And in case Parry thinks this is just a one time thing, keep in mind:

Texas’ drought is no temporary arrangement, though, and the ongoing urban sprawl will ensure homes keep crawling farther out into wildfire territory.

But thanks to cuts made this year by the Legislature, when those fires start up next year, and the year after that, Texas’ volunteer fire departments will head out to battle those flames with the same trucks and gear damaged in this year’s fires.

Yeah, I call this guy an idiot, and I think rightly so. It's his kind of anti-reality based fantasy thinking that will drag this country into third-world status faster than anything else.

September 11th

I remember that I was getting ready to go fly that morning.  I was in maintenance checking out the 781s and saw the news about the first plane (at that time assumed to be an accident).  I actually watched it live as the second plane was deliberately flown into the South Tower.  I told the rest of the crew that we would not be flying that day, and commenced to go into lock-down and was totally absorbed by the news like the rest of America.  I know that all over there will be numerous remembrances, memorials, discussions, etc.  It's sort of arbitrary that the 10th anniversary will cause so much reflection (because of our base 10 mathematical system), but I did see a specific passage that I couldn't agree with more:

Ten years have now passed since many of us first felt the jolt of history—when the second plane crashed into the South Tower of the World Trade Center. We knew from that moment that things can go terribly wrong in our world—not because life is unfair, or moral progress impossible, but because we have failed, generation after generation, to abolish the delusions of our ignorant ancestors. The worst of these ideas continue to thrive—and are still imparted, in their purest form, to children. 

Since when is reality a career killer?

Poor Jon Huntsman.  He's the only GOP candidate that actually has a grip on reality, and because of that, he's totally unelectable.  As has been bandied about, lifted from Bad Astronomy, lifted from The Friendly Atheist, who lifted it from The Daily Dish…

Listening to GOP Presidential candidates talk about science is like listening to children talk about sex: They know it exists, they have strong opinions about what it might mean, but they don’t have a clue what it’s actually about.

And to make things even worse... Listen to this video, and see if you can spot not only a denial of reality, but a total misrepresentation of history:
I know Texas seems to have a fundamental problem with history as it is, but doesn't Rick Parry know who it was that disagreed with Galileo?  And how totally and abjectly wrong the pope and church actually were?  Okay, so all this plays well with their base, but doesn't anyone remember what happened when we elected an intellectually dampened individual to the White House?  We're still paying for this now!  Of course, the GOP and the teabaggers are busy blaming the black guy for "W's" mess, so it's all okay...

Keep in mind, the visceral appeal of some of these yutzes and yahoos that appeal to the GOP base is that they are down home, or just like them.  Okay, how many of you out there honestly think you have the brains and ability to lead the United States?  Be honest! I for one would prefer to have the smartest, most educated, and intellectually honed individual in the seat in the Oval Office.  Putting some rotin tootin Yosemite Sam idiot there is a sure recipe for disaster.  And to be honest, I measure people's intellect on their adherence to reality.  It does not speak well for this current field of candidates.  For fuck's sake, do you want a guy that could barely pass high school to be your surgeon should you need an operation?  Then why the fuck do you want someone as intellectually handicapped as some of these candidates running this country?

Hell, I saw the NBC News Poll where the public thinks that all this is a "long term problem" for the President...  Are you fucking kidding me?  The American public has the memory and attention span of a fucking goldfish (OMG! A plastic castle!  OMG! A plastic castle!  OMG! A plastic castle!).  In six months, most Americans won't even be able to recall the GOP debate or the President's job speech.  And the 24 hour news cycle will be all about whatever the next manufactured crisis or punditry will be, which will have no bearing on any reality as usual.  I think I will hide until election day, or better yet